The two potential outcomes are either a new offensive on Tripoli to 'liberate' it from the GNC or the continued de facto partition of the country, with Haftar playing an ever growing role.

Mattia Toaldo

Categorized in : World

The challenge for the West will always be to surgically fight ISIS whenever that implies not getting dragged into Libya's civil war.

The victorious end of Misrata's offensive on Sirte could be the harbinger of more infighting between different factions, ultimately, the current relative absence of violence in Libya is very fragile in many areas and could crumble under these multiple pressures.

Europeans now have what they asked for, namely a unity government ruling from the capital, they should take care not to burden it with unrealistic demands, from ending the migrant crisis to defeating Islamic State.

Islamic State has realised that the largest factions are more interested in fighting each other, it is expanding in central Libya, encountering little resistance.

Islamic State has realized that the largest factions are more interested in fighting each other, it is expanding in central Libya, encountering little resistance.

I see the two non-votes as a convergence of the hardliners in bot... by Mattia Toaldo

I see the two non-votes as a convergence of the hardliners in both camps to preserve to status quo.

NOC Bayda (which hardly has a real structure) has repeatedly failed to attract a single oil company, large corporations prefer to stick to contracts and to deal with NOC in Tripoli, with which they have dealt for decades.

This has been in the making for some time now, it's part of the struggle for Abbas's succession as well as a consequence of the paranoia about Dahlan.

The result is that now IMF won't be able to do that again, so there won't be any economic negotiations to run in parallel with the political dialogue.

They would be able to ask for a lot of protection money (there). by Mattia Toaldo

They would be able to ask for a lot of protection money (there).

Differentiation is a legal prerequisite for the EU in order to avoid violating its own laws, you have to do it legally and by the book, but it is also beneficial to the peace process because it changes the calculations by the Israelis.

Whenever Hamas is with its back against the wall, it reacts with... by Mattia Toaldo

Whenever Hamas is with its back against the wall, it reacts with some fighting.