This is brinkmanship. In the end, everybody will probably be sensible but there's a risk of a policy mistake. Part of the problem is both sides feel emboldened, greece is in a better economic situation than it was before ... and the government has a strong mandate from the people to change. But the EU is emboldened too because there are a lot more backstops than before, the ESM is in place, and you can see the contagion is so much smaller. Spanish and Italian yields hardly moved in this crisis.

Ilan Solot

Categorized in : Company News

I don't see any reason to think that EMs will be terribly hurt by this - the market is ... reacting to a stronger dollar. But it isn't a continuous negative development, you adjust to it and move on.

There are a lot of cross currents for emerging markets, with the dollar (moves) and oil prices so volatile, the dollar trend is the biggest uncertainty there is.

There have been a lot of factors supporting the rouble. One is the oil price and the second is the pricing out of (Ukraine-related) political risk, but now I can't see a catalyst for another leg higher.

The China story is going to continue. The conditions on the ground for this government-sponsored rally are still there and there's no reason to think anything's going to change now, but there's still a question over when the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates ... There's a risk the markets are underestimating the Fed's resolve. If the dollar gets traction again, that's when you're going to see this enthusiasm for emerging markets start to wane.

It just feels like things are de-escalating, we are going to have spikes, more flare ups, there are always going to be negative headlines, but it is going in the right direction.

The worst is over for (emerging markets) in general, however, we still see room for further weakness on the currency side because we still expect the appreciating dollar trend to continue.

This is brinkmanship. In the end, everybody will probably be sensible but there's a risk of a policy mistake. Part of the problem is both sides feel emboldened, greece is in a better economic situation than it was before ... and the government has a strong mandate from the people to change. But the EU is emboldened too because there are a lot more backstops than before, the ESM (European Stability Mechanism) is in place, and you can see the contagion is so much smaller. Spanish and Italian yields hardly moved in this crisis.