This ISIS-Taliban joint attack represents a nightmare scenario come true. The Taliban and ISIS are widely understood to be foes, not friends, because of the Taliban’s close alliance with Al Qaeda — a bitter rival of ISIS. And yet Islamist terror groups in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region are all cut from the same basic ideological cloth.

Michael Kugelman

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U.S. policy in Afghanistan is so confused right now because on the one hand we're hearing the messaging from Washington and particularly Trump about our endless wars, that it could be time to leave sooner or later, on the other hand, you have U.S. military forces stepping up their pressure on the Taliban in more intense ways than ever before.

Michael Kugelman
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It all becomes quite unregulated, inefficient, and ultimately dan... by Michael Kugelman

It all becomes quite unregulated, inefficient, and ultimately dangerous.

Michael Kugelman
environment

If the military is not going to be tracking that data anymore, that is going to make it a lot more difficult to get a sense as to how strong the Taliban is, that may well be the military's intention.

Michael Kugelman
top-news

The top priority of Shanahan has to be to impress upon the government that we're going to do everything we can to get you into this conversation.

Michael Kugelman
top-news

( Pakistan) can also now request a somewhat lesser sum from the IMF, which in turn will reduce some of the political risks of venturing to the Fund, a move that never plays well within the court of Pakistani opinion.

Michael Kugelman
world
Islamabad has secured badly needed cash that few states were will... by Michael Kugelman

Islamabad has secured badly needed cash that few states were willing to provide.

Michael Kugelman
world

The administration could essentially say (after the review) that the conditions have not improved on the ground, so what is the reason to stay.

Michael Kugelman
top-news

We should keep our expectations in check ... If anything, it will make the Taliban even stronger by giving it some breathing room and time to regroup and reload.

Michael Kugelman
world

We shouldn't overstate the importance of this letter. It may be a case of the Taliban trying to earn some legitimacy and goodwill by playing the role of good guy and proposing nonviolent solutions, at the end of the day, The Taliban has no incentive to propose talks unless it's starting to feel major pressure on the battlefield. Though U.S. forces have ramped up their fight, I think it's too early for The Taliban to suddenly conclude it's not worth fighting anymore. Michael Kugelman said the Taliban offer could nonetheless be useful to the President Trump administration. Even if the letter is just a bluff, and I assume it is, the White House can say - Look, our strategy is already paying off. A spate of bombings last month in Kabul fueled anger against The Taliban across the country, and prompted the President Trump administration to close the doors for peace talks with the Islamic insurgents. Taliban fighters( Copyright 2016 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.) But The Taliban knows President Trump does n’t want the U.S. to be in Special Representative for Afghanistan. The Taliban will be banking on the belief the U.S. and the West have lost the will to remain there. US ADDING AIR POWER, INTELLIGENCE GATHERING IN AFGHANISTAN US AND PAKISTAN CLASH AT United Nations ' OVER Special Representative for Afghanistan In a recent visit to eastern Special Representative for Afghanistan, General John Nicholson, who commands the U.S. and NATO’s Resolute Support mission in the Special Representative for Afghanistan, said the intensified U.S. offensive is producing results.

Michael Kugelman
world

We have to worry about the precedent it could set and the very troubling implications for Afghanistan’s rapidly deteriorating stability, we shouldn’t overstate the idea of Taliban-ISIS partnership. If the Sar-i -Pul assault was indeed staged by both groups, it could well have been a tactical decision to work together as opposed to a new long-term strategic plan.

Michael Kugelman
latest-headlines

The deficiencies and incapacities of the Afghan security forces have really not been addressed enough to avert such a scenario (of losing territory) in the future.

Michael Kugelman
world

The Taliban won't simply meekly agree to talks and especially as this strike could worsen the fragmentation within the organization.

Michael Kugelman
industrials

These high turnover issues increase the possibility that when U.S.-led forces leave Afghanistan for good, whenever that is, they will be leaving Afghan forces unable to fend off a still-ferocious insurgency.

Michael Kugelman
world

It is really very important to remember we are very fortunate to be here in the U.S., where these attacks happen relatively infrequently compared to other areas of the world, as frightening as they are, when you consider places like Iraq, Syria, Pakistan — we are so much safer than these regions. We have a much greater chance of being hit by a car than we do of being the victim of a terror attack.

Michael Kugelman
us

We tend to forget, with the current emphasis on ISIS, but al Qaeda, particularly al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula, is probably an even more dangerous group.

Michael Kugelman
us

The moment that Modi touched down in Lahore (and probably even before), something like this was doomed to happen, at this point, there's sufficient goodwill in India-Pakistan relations to weather this attack. Saboteurs won't win this one.

Michael Kugelman
most-read-articles

For all the improvements that Afghan troops have made in recent years, the country's fighting forces remain a major work in progress, and when your country faces an insurgency capable of seizing a big city,' work in progress' is not good enough, and is, in fact, quite dangerous.

Michael Kugelman
world
For Washington, any scenario with Rajapaksa back in power - even... by Michael Kugelman

For Washington, any scenario with Rajapaksa back in power - even merely as an MP - is undesirable.

Michael Kugelman
company-news

These death confirmations and rejections are all part of a big pitch for power within an increasingly fractured and rudderless (Taliban) organization.

Michael Kugelman
world
For some hardened and impressionable radicals, bling could be as... by Michael Kugelman

For some hardened and impressionable radicals, bling could be as appealing as barbarity.

Michael Kugelman
top-news