To change momentum they would need to hike by 200 basis points as a minimum to change the correlation with the oil price.

Per Hammarlund

Categorized in : Energy

The mood is pretty subdued, partly because of Italy – that would have a dampening effect on growth in Europe, and that is weighing on market sentiment, the other factor is the announcement by Trump that they are planning to put tariffs on some Chinese goods - that came as a surprise too given that the last sign from the administration was that they are negotiating with China.

There are two things that will need to hold back growth – the rate hike, which will subdue credit growth - financial conditions have tightened markedly in Turkey, and that will have a dampening effect on growth.

It's just a matter of time before the government falls or we have a major reshuffling, the anti-corruption measures have been much more controversial than we would have liked, and now with the IMF putting pressure on them ... something will have to give.

It was much weaker than anticipated and that could mean the central bank introduces negative interest rates.

The first part of the week was dominated by falls, but the mood and sentiment seems to have turned and the markets are bouncing. There are few real hard indicators that would suggest the fall or the bounce.

It seems as if any kind of bad news is creating volatility, essentially it's a risk on/risk off mood and oil has been one of the factors prompting this sell off.

It's just a matter of time before they have to let their currency weaken. They need to move by some 20 percent at least.

The Chinese data was worse than expected, but I am surprised at h... by Per Hammarlund

The Chinese data was worse than expected, but I am surprised at how badly the market is reading it.

We expect a 25-basis-point hike but a fairly muted reaction. A rate hike now will create a bit more predictability and it will be a a signal that the Fed sees improvement in the U.S. economy.

It seems as though the central bank doesn't want to take any action before the election, and that's a negative for the lira.

My feeling is that it is driven by a sharp decline in key countries such as Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa.

Brazil has had a particularly significant impact on overall issuance as Petrobras used to be the single largest issuer in EM before the corruption scandal caused a delay in auditors to sign off on its 3Q 14 results.

After the run-up in the dollar over the last six months, the markets were due for a bit of a correction and really, any signs of dollar weakness people are just jumping.

Another round of severe weakness in the rouble should be expected... by Per Hammarlund

Another round of severe weakness in the rouble should be expected.

To change momentum they would need to hike by 200 bps as a minimum to change correlation with oil price.