To put things in context, if we were to look at Iran in total, it's exporting roughly 2.2 million barrels a day of sales, of which half is going to both China and India, it's very important for the U.S. to get India on board with the sanctions policy.

Andrew Lipow

Categorized in : Politics

The market is disappointed by a very small crude oil inventory draw. ... The only sign of strength in the market is the continued modest decline of gasoline inventories.

That might include pressure to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which the administration indicated they were considering on Friday, to put things in context, if we were to look at Iran in total, it's exporting roughly 2.2 million barrels a day of sales, of which half is going to both China and India.

In spite of the extraordinary draw in crude oil inventories, the market is under pressure after refiners produced a record amount of gasoline this week and in conjunction with a greater than expected build in distillate inventories.

We continue to see the oil market supported, with growing concern on sanctions on Iran now that the European and Korean refiners reduced their purchases to virtually zero.

There is concern that the Saudi and Russian increases in production might now be nearly enough to offset - not just Iranian production- but also supply disruptions that we're seeing from Libya, Nigeria and Canada.

I expect that Venezuelan production will continue to decline and the upcoming elections hold the spectre of the U.S. imposing additional sanctions on Venezuela that may hasten the loss of supply.

OPEC is simply telling us it will not take any action to support oil prices in the foreseeable future, and that can hardly be good.

That's just more bad news for the oil markets. by Andrew Lipow

That's just more bad news for the oil markets.

Removing some Russian banks from SWIFT could result in a disruption of oil supplies as buyers and sellers try to figure out how to navigate the new rules, bottom line : No funding, no oil.

There’s concern that the Fed will begin tapering, resulting in a stronger dollar and weaker crude prices.

The oil market continues to look for better days ahead with an increasing rollout of the vaccine, encouraging demand, while OPEC+ continues to restrain production.

The market was led up by a significant draw in crude oil.

The market was led up by a significant draw in crude oil as the refining industry continues to turn the crude oil surplus into refined products.

This trend is likely to continue over the next couple of months as refiners increase diesel production and gasoline demand goes into its seasonally slow period.

The bottom line is some people are looking for OPEC+ to cut production, and I don't think that's going to happen.