Turkey's response has been very much more humane than. Europe, and far more in line with what Europe claims to have as. universal values, many people are trying to understand the limits of how much Turkey is prepared to do. I think we are reaching those limits.

Sinan Ulgen

Categorized in : World

It has aspirations to capture the state. They certainly came quite a long way in reaching this objective, they have certainly been helped and assisted by the AKP, when AKP came to power they established an alliance. It helped to populate the Turkish administration with Gulenists.

This is the more benign face of the movement but there is a dark... by Sinan Ulgen

This is the more benign face of the movement but there is a dark face.

It was outside the chain of command which was the biggest handicap for the coup plotters, they had an insufficient portfolio of resources. They were grossly under-equipped to achieve their strategic objectives ... There was definitely quite a degree of incompetence compared to how coups were done here in the past.

For all practical purposes the accession dynamic is dead ... In a way it has become inconsequential as far as Erdogan is concerned, it will be a piecemeal effort to concoct areas of common interest and build structures of cooperation as the need arises ... That has been the case for refugees, that will be the case for economic integration, possibly for cooperation on counter-terrorism, and areas like that.

Fundamentally, Erdogan may have calculated that as much as visa freedom would be a positive development, it is not enough of a benefit for him to be seen to be soft on terror.

Erdogan's end goal is to consolidate enough popular support to switch to a presidential system. Davutoglu's end goal is to consolidate Ahmet Davutoglu own power and be a successful prime minister, the experience so far has been that when people who seemingly had weight in The AKP showed even a soft form of dissent, Erdogan was able to sideline them without significant consequences for the popularity of the party.

If Turkey and Iran cannot agree on these subjects, there is a pretty low prospect of the conflict in Syria being brought to an end.

This is essentially a by-product of tensions with Iran. by Sinan Ulgen

This is essentially a by-product of tensions with Iran.

It's more political, but of course it's getting poisoned by higher sectarian tensions. That's what's making it harder to manage.

This so-called grand coalition represents the best way forward for Turkey at this juncture, such a broad-based agreement could ease the country's current extreme political polarisation and reintroduce a dynamic of democratic and economic reform underpinned by a new momentum toward the goal of EU accession.

Turkey is in turmoil( and) the flames are engulfing everyone. by Sinan Ulgen

Turkey is in turmoil( and) the flames are engulfing everyone.

Turkey cannot be the solution for the European Union's inability to act collectively to address the enormity of this humanitarian tragedy and develop policies to share the burden.

It will be seen as the party that has forced early elections on a recalcitrant Turkish electorate at a time when there are severe challenges, both from the security perspective and also economically, the drawback to this gambit for Erdogan is that if the AK Party ends up losing votes, we may start to see more open dissatisfaction about his influence.

He sees no downside in forcing early elections, but possibly a huge upside. From Erdogan’s perspective I think it boils down to that.

Erdogan does not want to go there, because that would mean power sharing, and holding the elections with a government not under AKP control, that is his least-desired scenario.

It serves Bahceli’s purpose more to see the HDP acquire cabinet positions under an election government, they want to be able to criticize AKP and Erdogan from the sidelines ... and use that in their election campaign. They actually want Erdogan to call early elections. That's the MHP's strategy I think.

The dynamic in Syria was going against Turkish interests, first, Islamic State was expanding northwest and continuing to take ground along the border.

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Secondly, there was the fear that the expansion of the PYD could ultimately establish a Kurdish territory stretching from Iraq to the Mediterranean. These two dynamics forced Turkey's hand.

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Whether this will be after 45 days, one year or two, depends on the attitudes and the paths taken by the parties from here.

Erdogan is the main loser given that he championed two big ideas: one a switch to a presidential system, the other single-party government, neither of them came about.