We are currently 40 percent for September and 60 for December because there are still doubts in the corner of the doves, i think if you are going to hike rates for the first time in many years you want show a united front. If they went in September there would probably be quite a few doves voting against it.

Philip Marey

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Only if GDP growth fails to pick up in Q2 will the FOMC deliver f... by Philip Marey

Only if GDP growth fails to pick up in Q2 will the FOMC deliver fewer than two hikes this year.

The problem is that we have these brief spells of optimism like we had last week when U.S. GDP was revised up, but the overall theme is still the weakness in China and that is very hard to dispel from markets.

It is the (low) inflation picture that will deter them from pulling the trigger on interest rates early.

We know the employment growth has been decent for a couple of months now, so if we get close to the consensus, that just confirms what we already know, so the Fed will want to see 'underemployment' rate fall further and they want the hourly earnings growth to rebound to 3-4 percent. That is what is becoming increasingly important.