We can dismiss these fears, call them baseless, but the U.S. cannot afford to ignore them, the Saudis are in Yemen today because they sense they are on their own and that the U.S. does not care about their threat perceptions.

Alex Vatanka

Categorized in : Politics

We shouldn't say to two Middle Eastern countries that,' Listen, you shouldn't have relations with a neighbor.' That's unrealistic. That goes down badly, it's like a Middle Eastern country coming to United States saying,' Don't have relations with Canada.'.

Right now, for the United States, confusion in the minds of allies or potential allies like the Iraqis, is not a good thing because they don't have the same amount of political space when they engage in their sort of strategic calculations, if they make a couple of bad mistakes, they'll be in a very bad place in terms of instability.

It seems to be in conflict. It's a disjointed way of going about... by Alex Vatanka

It seems to be in conflict. It's a disjointed way of going about business in the Middle East.

The Saudis are in Yemen today because they sense they are on their own and that the U.S. does not care about their threat perceptions, the same is true for the Israelis, the Emiratis, the Turks and other pro-U.S. allies.

The idea that money is going to change much, I don't buy it for a... by Alex Vatanka

The idea that money is going to change much, I don't buy it for a second.

There is a large pool to draw from, there are pockets within that Shi'ite community that have been willing to pick up arms to fight for their Shi’ite identity, their sectarian identity. And that’s what the IRGC is tapping into.

The message Iran is recruiting with, like it or not, is a sectarian message, that is a message that is inherently dangerous and can get out of hand.