We didn't view the pricing of new issue as attractive, in part because we don't view the current emerging markets rally as sustainable.

Sarah Glendon

Categorized in : Company News

They are aware they have to be generous, they have a constrained... by Sarah Glendon

They are aware they have to be generous, they have a constrained liquidity position.

Between 2020 and 2024 there will be significant spikes in bond maturities, so whoever is in office will need to prioritise getting their fiscal house in order to maintain market access and be able to roll over maturities during that period.

If they get close to that, I am fairly confident that authorities will brush the debt limit by the wayside.

Investors have focused for a long time on Ecuador's willingness to pay given past defaults, but I think now it is more about ability to pay.

The government has been trying very hard to prove their willingness to pay, this is why repaying the 2015 bond is very symbolic for the government and the market.

It is beyond 2015 that I become more concerned, if oil prices remain low, the economy could enter into recession. If that occurs, the main risk over the medium term is that the economy could be de-dollarised.