We still have the big question mark over Iran. This month is the... by Tony Nunan

We still have the big question mark over Iran. This month is the crunch time for P5+1 talks.

Tony Nunan

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If there is a time for the U.S. to be able to take a hard line it is now, with the Saudis having over 2 million barrels (per day) of spare capacity.

To replace Iranian oil it makes sense to go for a sour grade such as Mars and Green Canyon. The problem is these grades are also needed in the U.S. and it is the very light sweet grades that are in excess.

We are going into summer, the high demand season, and I think we are going to see a fall in U.S. crude oil inventories, but shale oil output is growing.

We are going into summer, the high demand season, and I think we are going to see a fall in U.S. crude oil inventories, but shale oil output is growing. Which one is going to win is the issue.

We can expect continued falling Venezuelan production. by Tony Nunan

We can expect continued falling Venezuelan production.

(Oil inventory) is tight and the U.S. will probably tighten sanctions on Venezuela which will make the Venezuela situation worse and which means we can expect continued falling Venezuelan production, combined with expectations for falling Iranian production as the U.S. pressures allies to reduce their imports, this will push crude oil prices up to $80 a barrel and we think it can go higher.

There is a cloud hanging over the market from the Brexit vote, which is keeping prices down a bit, if the vote comes off, we could go up.

Shale is the new shock absorber to the market, there is a wide range of production costs. Shale's total production costs are around $48-$50 a barrel - there will be producers who make money at $50.

Commercial inventories will continue to build until May or June. The bearish sentiment (on prices) will continue until we actually see inventories draw down.

Oil prices will trend down again ... $35 a barrel will be the support level. Low prices are not sustainable in the long-run.

Anytime prices get close to $45-$50 a barrel, funds that have taken long positions are likely to take profits. Unless things really ignite the global economy, then people will sell-off at that level.

OPEC production is still high and Iran is expected to continue to ramp up, i expect crude to come back down again and test the $35 level again if we continue to get builds.

The market is expecting continuing inventory builds, key to any deal (to cap production) is Iran. But Iran has been clear, saying it wants to get back to its pre-sanctions (production) level.

Everything is pointing to the end of this year (before there is an agreement) when Iran gets to 4 million barrels per day. By that time the pain will be so great everybody will come to the table (to agree output caps).

The (global) inventory situation is going to get worse in the second quarter as we hit the peak refining rate at the end of this quarter, (But) this has been so well documented that it's been built into prices. I do think we're close to the bottom and the bottom in prices will be this quarter.

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Oil prices are coming off again. Prices are going to zig-zag for... by Tony Nunan

Oil prices are coming off again. Prices are going to zig-zag for a while.

Prices this year and next are going to be weak. It could go to $40 a barrel which has been a major support line because if it goes below that a lot of upstream developments will be underwater and below long-term breakeven prices, long-term $60-70 a barrel is a more sustainable price.

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The EIA data shows demand is being stimulated by lower oil prices. It could be a flash in the pan. We have passed peak summer demand. It could be temporary.

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U.S. crude inventories have been at historic highs ... but the thing is crude inventories may have peaked after oil demand picked up in June, $60 a barrel is the new normal for the next several months.

There's always a chance (an agreement) could be scuttled. June 30 is a self-imposed deadline, so it could be put off.