Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office. Nate Silver More Quotes by Nate Silver More Quotes From Nate Silver Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense. Nate Silver degreesactingpeople People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it. Nate Silver informationlightpeople Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak. Nate Silver too-muchhotway Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken. Nate Silver presidentialbrokenyears People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is. Nate Silver appreciateephemeralpeople If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public. Nate Silver swingscollegewinning I don't think you should limit what you read. Nate Silver limitsshouldthinking We speak for them. We imbue them with meaning. Nate Silver speak Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise. Nate Silver politicalnoisedoe To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.' Nate Silver minorsheyrealizing Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline. Nate Silver oppositesfactsthinking I have to think about how to not spread myself too thin. It's a really great problem to have. Nate Silver really-greatproblemthinking I think punditry serves no purpose. Nate Silver purposethinking The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress. Nate Silver enemy-of-progressquestsoutcomes I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about. Nate Silver columniststeamthinking If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot. Nate Silver snapshotsrepresentativessample If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy. Nate Silver computerifsbusy When a possibility is unfamiliar to us, we do not even think about it. Nate Silver investingpossibilitythinking You get steely nerves playing poker. Nate Silver nerves Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. Nate Silver midtermselectionboring
