What really matters here is what enforcements will the U.S. have when the Chinese don't follow through.

Derek Scissors

Categorized in : Top News

U.S.-China talks change very quickly from hot to cold but, the longer it takes to nail down the easy Phase 1, the harder it is to imagine a Phase 2 breakthrough.

It's odd that (the president) was so upbeat with (Chinese Vice-Premier) Liu He and yet we still don't have the Dec. 15 tariffs taken off the table.

President Donald Trump's absolutely right that the Chinese are trying to stall until after the election, absolutely right.

The treatment of Huawei has been a circus, if we have a deal, Huawei will absolutely be part of it because the president doesn't care ... about technology competition.

We've had a change in atmospherics, while this is great for markets, the administration has not said one specific thing about how we're unstuck.

Both sides might need some prodding, but we've had a very clear opportunity for one side or the other ... to say this isn't going to work ... and neither side did.

They are not going to do it, the record says, unless they get a trade deal, or we threaten them in the absence of a trade deal.

There are many, many laws on Chinese books that don't get enforced. It will turn out that enforcement is quite spotty.

Our previous negotiations with China have all been failures. by Derek Scissors

Our previous negotiations with China have all been failures.

China's problems are chronic, not acute. by Derek Scissors

China's problems are chronic, not acute.

Old, indebted economies don't grow. by Derek Scissors

Old, indebted economies don't grow.

I would not, on the investment side, be betting against the Treas... by Derek Scissors

I would not, on the investment side, be betting against the Treasury Department.

As I've said from the beginning, China will back off its industrial plans only when U.S. trade measures are large and lasting enough to threaten the influx of foreign exchange. Not due to announcements.

My understanding is that, as of Sunday, he was coming here to say... by Derek Scissors

My understanding is that, as of Sunday, he was coming here to say,' We'll buy more U.S. stuff,'.

The (Chinese) reform camp has been selling (IMF inclusion) partly on the basis of international prestige, in particular equaling Japan, what is the reform movement going to say now to move reform forward ... if the IMF has already recognized China as an internationalized currency?

Unless there is a national security risk, then I would say the private sector should solve this, and( regarding) claims by Peter Navarro and others that you can't trust the Chinese with anything, then it requires a lot more than banning TikTok -- but a total decoupling of The US and Chinese economies.