While the survey data point to the economy rebounding in the second quarter, the weak PMI number for June raises the possibility that we are seeing a loss of momentum heading into the third quarter, the slowdown is being led by deteriorating export performance, which many producers in turn linked to a loss of competitiveness caused by the stronger dollar.

Chris Williamson

Categorized in : Business

The euro zone will look upon 2014 as a year in which recession was avoided by the narrowest of margins, but the weakness of the survey data suggests there's no guarantee that a renewed downturn will not be seen in 2015.

Chris Williamson

Companies are citing greater uncertainty about the outlook, especially in export markets, leading to some scaling back of expansion plans and a greater reluctance for customers to place orders compared to earlier in the year, which suggests a slowdown could become more entrenched unless demand revives.

Chris Williamson

Softer output and employment numbers merely represent a cooling in the pace of expansion from unusually strong rates earlier in the year.

Chris Williamson

The region is on course to see a mere 0.1 percent GDP growth in the final quarter of the year, with a strong likelihood of the near-stagnation turning to renewed contraction in the new year unless demand shows signs of reviving.

Chris Williamson

Survey results indicate that policy initiatives currently announced have yet to have a meaningful impact on business or consumer confidence in the region, and that more aggressive measures are likely to be needed, and quickly implemented, if another recession is to be averted.

Chris Williamson

With inflows of new orders slowing sharply, there's a good chance that production growth will deteriorate further in December, unless order book growth picks up, factories will inevitably soon turn to cutting jobs in order to bring capacity down in line with weaker demand.

Chris Williamson

Although still reasonably strong, the pace of growth has slowed for three successive months, taking it down to the slowest since January, when business was hit by extreme weather arising from the Polar Vortex. This time, there was little anecdotal evidence from companies of the weather affecting business.

Chris Williamson

Business confidence is now at a level which would typically herald an economic downturn, adding to the risk of recession.

Chris Williamson

Having enjoyed a mini-boom from consumers returning after the relaxation of pandemic restrictions, many services firms are now seeing households increasingly struggle with the rising cost of living, with producers of non-essential goods seeing a similar drop in orders.

Chris Williamson

A stronger expansion of business activity in November defied economists' expectations of a slowdown, but is unlikely to prevent the euro zone from suffering slower growth in the fourth quarter, especially as rising virus cases look set to cause renewed disruptions to the economy in December.

Chris Williamson

The Chris Williamson economy continues to run hot, despite a slower rate of expansion of business activity in November, growth remains above the survey's long-run pre-pandemic average as companies continue to focus on boosting capacity to meet rising demand.

Chris Williamson

A manufacturing sector beset with supply chain delays saw production growth falter to the lowest [ level ] since the first lockdowns of last year, the services sector has meanwhile seen some of the summer rebound fade just as resurgent virus case numbers bring renewed concerns.

Chris Williamson

Europe’s service sector is springing back into life. Easing virus restrictions and further vaccination progress are boosting demand for a wide variety of activities, especially in tourism, travel and hospitality.

Chris Williamson

Worries about the Delta variant have become more widespread, ... subduing activity in some instances and raising concerns about the possibility of virus restrictions being tightened again, hence services growth in July was slightly less marked than the earlier flash estimate and future expectations cooled, presenting a significant downside risk to the outlook and hinting that growth could begin to slow again as we head toward the autumn.

Chris Williamson

The big uncertainty is how long these upward price pressures will persist for, and the extent to which these higher charges for goods and services will feed through to consumers.

Chris Williamson

Euro zone manufacturing is booming, however, supply constraints are also running at unprecedented levels, leading to a record build-up of uncompleted orders at factories.

Chris Williamson

Supply shortages have meanwhile put pricing power in the hands of suppliers, pushing raw material prices sharply higher. Increased shipping costs are adding to the burden.

Chris Williamson

Euro zone manufacturing output continued to expand at a solid pace at the start of 2021, though growth has weakened to the lowest since the recovery began as new lockdown measures and supply shortages pose further challenges to producers across the region.

Chris Williamson