Adrian Raftery

The likely range of global temperature increase is 2.0-4.9 [degrees Celsius] and our median forecast is 3.2 C, our model is based on data which already show the effect of existing emission mitigation policies. Achieving the goal of less than 1.5 C warming will require carbon intensity to decline much faster than in the recent past.

This addresses a somewhat different question, namely how much warming should we expect if fossil fuel emissions were to suddenly cease, in contrast, our study tries to assess how much warming we should expect given realistic future trajectories of emissions. Thus the other study provides a lower bound on expected emissions and warming, and this is indeed lower than the likely range we find, as we would expect.