Andrew Tabler

Having a sword of Damocles having over Assad's head is not necess... by Andrew Tabler

Having a sword of Damocles having over Assad's head is not necessarily a bad thing.

It's unclear what's going to happen on the battlefield before the ceasefire, they could try to close the ring around Aleppo.

A lot of those developments could impact humanitarian deliveries and other elements in the agreement.

I don't see a tremendous amount of change out of the Iranians or Russians. There is some talk of them being tired, but their positions are pretty firm, they think that Assad's immediate departure would lead to a collapse of the regime. Washington also sees a rapid collapse of the regime as something that would be a boon for ISIS. They are in a conundrum: if Assad goes right away, it would help ISIS, but if he doesn't go at all, you have no hope of putting the pieces of Syria back together again.

They think that Assad's immediate departure would lead to a collapse of the regime. Washington also sees a rapid collapse of the regime as something that would be a boon for ISIS. They are in a conundrum: if Assad goes right away, it would help ISIS, but if he doesn't go at all, you have no hope of putting the pieces of Syria back together again, this recent outburst of diplomacy is because everyone was becoming concerned, and rightfully so. But the results of that process were remarkably poor. They seem to cement the earlier political positions of the region when it comes to Syria.

Diplomatic efforts are under way to de-escalate the conflict, which in some cases means negotiating with the regime. But U.S. policy remains that Assad must go as part of a political transition - which isn't going to happen anytime soon.