Ayham Kamel

Any oil production disruption would occur at a time when Saudi Arabia has lost a significant part of its energy system redundancies (spare capacity), while Saudi oil production is now close to 9.9 million bpd, it is not clear that the capacity is fully operational at 11.3 million bpd and the (attacked) Abqaiq facility has lost a significant part of its redundancy.

Its leaders will not move forward with anything substantive, on the policy side perhaps the agreement will alleviate some sensitivities but the U.S. strategy in Iraq contradicts Iran's on several levels. A nuclear deal will not change that.

There is still a central government in Baghdad that is nominally in charge of the country as a whole, but in real terms the central government is less relevant in Kurdish areas, it is irrelevant in the Sunni heartland and it is also less relevant in the (Shi'ite) south.