Halil Karaveli

If the election were to be held in the middle of an economic crisis - say one year from now - then of course the situation would have looked different, my gut feeling is that most voters are going to stick with Erdogan... (He) has governed this country for 15 years very successfully, from their point of view.

He seems to have scared Davutoglu into toeing his line by raising the specter of his man Binali Yildirim contesting the leadership.

The AKP do not want to look like a right-wing party. They want to be seen as the party that is reforming Turkey.

The Turkish economy is sort of a bubble. It's living off foreign capital being pumped in, which has made it possible for people to borrow and consume, the savings rate in Turkey is extremely low. You're totally dependent on inflows of foreign capital, which has sustained consumption and it has sustained this construction boom.