Matthew Bryza

There is nothing the U.S. government can do to dissuade President Erdogan from purging the Turkish military and judiciary from people he views as a threat, president Erdogan will simply do this, period. He views such measures as both a matter of survival and then as a means to significantly greater power.

Russia’s goal in its lone mediation mission appears to be twofold: firstly, to repair its international reputation in relation to its debacle in Ukraine, and secondly to strengthen the impression in Armenia and Azerbaijan that Russia calls the shots in the South Caucasus, the fact that the U.S. administration is so absent and timid in its response has the impact of ceding the strategic field in the South Caucasus to Russia. This can have profound and dangerous consequences in Syria, Ukraine, and far beyond.

The good news is that those who are in favor of reform see this as an opportunity. This provides some leverage for the financial and economic ministries, the others, to advance reforms.

That was the signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin that despite having invaded Georgia and occupied a large swath of its territory, everything was Okay. Russia responded to the outreached hand with a clenched fist and beefed up its attack.