Michael Beckley

There’s a lot of chatter suggesting that if China is going to move on Taiwan that now would be the opportune time, the Russia conflict plays into this because of course it’s a big distraction for the United States.

Michael Beckley

China’s economy is 10 times the size of Russia’s, china spends four times as much every year on its military as Russia does, and China is really a multi-dimensional, great power.

Michael Beckley

First of all, I think the Chinese are worried that if they are to make moves on Taiwan or to get more aggressive or simply a spark the ire of the United States and its allies, they too could be subject to similar sanctions, and so they want to start undermining the legitimacy of this sort of ganging up on a great power.

Michael Beckley

Not just economic competition or ideological competition, but an actual war.

Michael Beckley

If Russia and China are each fighting back-to-back in their own regions, that's going to overstretch American forces, give them each opportunities to make inroads in their own regions and I think heightens the risk of a conflict over something like Taiwan this decade.

Michael Beckley

China, on the one hand, wants to support Russia but is not willing to go to the full extent as an ally would because it worries that it'll get cut off from the Western economic system and invite hostility towards itself.

Michael Beckley