Michael Gapen

The U.S. trade volume is slowing and slower global growth and U.S. trade policy are likely behind this.

Anti-trade policies, particularly tariffs, act like a tax on consumers and businesses by raising the cost of trade. By creating uncertainty, they also weigh on asset valuations, which could weaken households' ability to sustain spending and reduce the incentive for businesses to invest.

The era of low or even negative interest rates across the developed world, particularly in Japan and the euro zone, could last for several years to come.

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We look for very minimal changes in the statement and ... for verbal communications after the meeting, in speeches and interviews, to say, 'Yes, December remains a possibility,'.

We believe meeting the 1.6 billion euros in payments to the IMF by the end of June will be difficult. Payments of 3.5 billion euros on bonds held by the ECB on July 20 appear even more unlikely, without an agreement, Greece could descend into what would effectively be an exit from the euro area, where defaults and capital controls become a permanent feature.

We think growth will moderate in the fourth quarter. I'm not reading anything incredibly negative into this.