Michael Kofman

I think it's reasonable to say that partial mobilization probably will not reflect itself on the battlefield for several months at the earliest, and could expand Russia's ability to sustain this war, but not alter its outcome.

They did see it coming, that's why they set up filtration camps and shipped out a lot of the population out of occupied areas.

I think Russia is going to have significant challenges in trying to establish any sort of stable administration for these regions, because likely collaborators -- more prominent ones -- are going to be assassinated and others will be living in fear.

Much hinges on whether Ukraine can retake territory at least to February 23 lines, the prospect is there, but it's contingent. If Ukraine can get that far, then it can likely take the rest. But if it can't, then it may have to reconsider how best to attain victory.

The big question is why are units from the Central Military District 3,000 miles from their garrison hanging around for the winter ? it is difficult to find an innocuous explanation for the military activity that's been taking place.

At the moment it is a developing situation. It's not 'nothing happening' and it doesn't mean that there will be an offensive op tomorrow.