Neil Shearing

The weakness in the global economy that we anticipate over 2019-20 is due primarily to country-specific factors that we believe will cause each of the world's major economic regions to slow, so while a deal between the Neil Shearing and China on trade would clearly be good news, we won't be rushing to change our forecasts.

Moves to roll back regulatory changes made in the wake of the global financial crisis, or to loosen the credit spigots more generally, could inadvertently sow the seeds of the next crisis.

We are getting some dollar weakness after a period of strength following the payrolls (data last week). If retail sales tomorrow are strong, that will cement expectations of a rate hike in September, and I suspect we will see a renewed dollar bounce and sell-off in emerging markets.

Certainly, a lot of the panic has subsided in the past month or so, there is growing acknowledgement that the Fed will tread carefully and second, there have been some local positive developments ... the oil price stabilisation has also helped.

The central bank is having to throw the kitchen sink at the rouble just to get it to stabilise, the positive spin today is that it's at least not falling any more.

Russia has triggered dislocation in other emerging markets but with the exception of Brazil and Turkey, policy makers in most countries won't be too worried about weaker currencies.