Ole Hansen

The U.S.-China trade spat seems to be hotting up again after yesterday's announcement from the White House, the global growth and demand outlook does not need a new political/financial crisis in Europe and a potential trade war between the world's two biggest economies.

There is still this global supply glut to deal with, there is no sign from OPEC, Iran is waiting in the wings and U.S. production remains resilient despite a renewed price drop.

If they spring a deal, that would be taken as a bit of a surprise, that would probably take the market down 5-10 percent.

We are well and truly stuck. by Ole Hansen

We are well and truly stuck.

We have more or less seen longs rise since October so it's been g... by Ole Hansen

We have more or less seen longs rise since October so it's been going on for some time.

Geopolitical risk like this has been on the back burner for a while because we've been focussing on global oversupply, this news has not made the oversupply go away. The upside potential is limited unless something escalates. We need to see how this unfolds over the next couple of days.