Simon MacAdam

While the latest data show that the recovery in the US is being supercharged by a combination of fiscal stimulus and relaxation of restrictions, for much of the rest of the world, vaccine setbacks and worsening virus outbreaks will delay economic recoveries, the surge in virus cases in India has grabbed attention in recent weeks, but infections are on the rise in most parts of the world, especially in emerging economies.

At the moment it's rather difficult to tell, a supply chain is only as strong as the weakest link. That's why there's such uncertainty about estimates.