At today's level of the real effective exchange rate, the current account deficit is expected to rise above 4 percent of GDP by 2020, pointing to the U.S. dollar being overvalued by 10-20 percent.

The IMF

Categorized in : Business

These measures...are likely to move the globe further away from an open, fair and rules-based trade system, with adverse effects for both the U.S. economy and for trading partners.

The U.S. and its trading partners should work...to reduce trade barriers and resolve trade and investment disagreements without resorting to tariff and non-tariff barriers.

The output gap could close more abruptly, through a policy-induced recession, with negative spillovers for the global economy.

It may also sometimes be appropriate for the entity providing the... by The IMF

It may also sometimes be appropriate for the entity providing the service to be regulated.

Myopic pursuit of zero-sum policies can only end by hurting all countries, as history shows, because national policies inevitably interact in a number of vital areas, creating strong spillovers across countries, the world economy works far better for all when policymakers engage in regular dialogue and work within agreed mechanisms to resolve disagreement.

In Nigeria, economic activity is now projected to contract in 2016, as the economy adjusts to foreign currency shortages as a result of lower oil receipts, low power generation, and weak investor confidence.

If true, this would mean the U.S. economy could soon bump up against capacity constraints that would slow growth and generate domestic inflationary pressures with negative global spillovers.

Malawi’s macroeconomic situation remains difficult, reflecting weather-related shocks and past policy slippages, which contributed to persistently high inflation.

To sustain the reasonable growth rates from 2014-15 given the expected drop in public investment, private investment needs to play a much stronger role than at present.

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Continued state control of banks creates risks of interference in... by The IMF

Continued state control of banks creates risks of interference in their lending decisions.

mergers-acquisitions

A sharper slowdown in China than currently projected could have strong international spillovers through trade, commodity prices, and confidence, and lead to a more generalized slowdown in the global economy, especially if it further curtailed expectations of future income.

There is a role for complementing structural reform with macroeconomic policy support. That includes fiscal stimulus wherever space is available.

Beyond the continued growth in importance of the Chinese economy, the size of financial market spillovers is also likely to grow because of the transition to a more market-based financial system and a decline in market segmentation, moreover, the challenge of engineering a smooth transition will make global financial markets more sensitive to changes in China's economic and financial conditions and policies.

As China's role in the global financial system grows, clear and timely communication of its policy decisions, transparency about its policy goals, and strategies consistent with achieving them will be increasingly important to avoid volatile market reactions with wider reverberations.

The FCL arrangement reinforces Poland's buffers against external risks. The lower access is appropriate in light of somewhat lower risks and the improvement in Poland's fundamentals, the authorities intend to continue to treat the arrangement as precautionary and to gradually exit from the FCL once external risks recede.

Keeping to these plans, however, is subject to significant risks related to (i) the ability to fully finance the ambitious 2016 personal income tax reform and (ii) uncertainties about the costs associated with the refugee crisis, while recent revenue buoyancy will help, it is likely that additional measures will be needed to reach the targeted deficit.

The sector remains exposed to political and economic risks in CESEE (central, eastern and southeastern Europe), the authorities should continuously assess the adequacy of bank capital requirements and stand ready to tighten them if risks intensify.

While still in early stages, measures to integrate refugees are t... by The IMF

While still in early stages, measures to integrate refugees are timely and well-targeted.

The debt sustainability assessment will take place after the launch of the program (agreed with creditors) in two or three months. The IMF will then be able to evaluate whether to intervene.

The dramatic deterioration in debt sustainability points to the need for debt relief on a scale that would need to go well beyond what has been under consideration to date - and what has been proposed by the ESM.