Despite what we view as a balanced oil market both domestically and globally, oil pricing is apparently still sensitive to evolving developments in the Persian Gulf where occasional minor military events are slowly cranking up geopolitical risk premium.

Jim Ritterbusch

Categorized in : Business

We still view the U.S.-Chinese trade standoff as a major bearish consideration that will likely be requiring additional downward oil demand adjustments as this year proceeds.

Jim Ritterbusch

U.S. businesses affected by the increased tariffs will be making decisions regarding purchases, inventories, etc., that are apt to force some downshifts in the U.S. economic growth path that could have implications for U.S. oil demand, a decline below our expected next support level of $56 (for WTI) will likely associate with a further plunge in equities that would be heavily related to unresolved trade issues between the U.S. and China ... volatility across all markets will be heightened until some significant trade progress is seen.

Jim Ritterbusch

Trump appears to be attempting to micromanage the oil... to maintain strong enough production to keep global supplies in surplus, but as far as the Saudis are concerned, today's tweets could even embolden their efforts toward restraint.

Jim Ritterbusch

We view a blockade on Venezuelan imports as low probability and a last resort measure that is likely weeks if not months away should it materialize, the evolving situation in Venezuela appears capable of delaying our expected test of $50 support.

Jim Ritterbusch

We've seen that front May-June spread in WTI swing back into contango today. And that's somewhat of a bearish...it implies a continued up trend in Cushing crude supply, there's not much volatility today, as we wait for API and EIA data.

Jim Ritterbusch

The Saudis benefit from talking this market up ... they buy a little time and give the market a chance to acquire better balance, if at the end of the day the Saudis don't go along with an agreement to cut production, the market will go right down, just like last time.

Jim Ritterbusch

The Brent trade remains surprisingly stout in continuing a sideways or consolidation phase that is approaching one month in duration, since Jim Ritterbusch have some difficulty constructing a fundamental argument for Brent price support, we are attributing most of the strengthening in Brent versus WTI to the continued build in U.S. crude supplies, particularly at Cushing.

Jim Ritterbusch

Heating oil fell to multiyear lows this week, leaving it vulnerable to a short-covering rally, a lot of big shorts took profits today.

Jim Ritterbusch

Today's close didn't alter our opinion of a potentially bearish gasoline market that will be forced to recognize a sizable supply surplus when seasonal tendencies begin to reverse in a few weeks, but, for now, technical signals across the complex favor higher prices and we would continue to caution against any attempts to pick a top.

Jim Ritterbusch

Predicting short-term price swings has become extremely difficult given the arduous process of predicting the impact of the Delta variant on forward global oil demand, particularly in countries such as China where data is much less transparent than that of the U.S..

Jim Ritterbusch

Unless major progress is seen beyond the key industrialized nations such as the U.S., the pandemic factor could require some downward adjustments in global oil demand expectations for this year.

Jim Ritterbusch

The primary hazard to continued oil price strength is the possible re-emergence of COVID-19 case counts on a broad scale.

Jim Ritterbusch

The Saudis’ intent to eliminate a global supply surplus appears to be on track and capable of boosting crude prices further.

Jim Ritterbusch

We ... view the strong curve as indicative of tightening balances in which upcoming Saudi production cuts are more than offsetting increased demand concerns related to the coronavirus.

Jim Ritterbusch

The energy complex is posting a strong rebound on Fed unlimited QE (Quantitative Easing) and expectations for a major U.S. fiscal package today.

Jim Ritterbusch