It's going to take many months for the broader implications of the oil price collapse to play out, for the time being, we're going to see volatility in crude oil prices and energy producers.

Elvis Picardo

Categorized in : Company News

The market is reacting to that in quite a negative fashion. by Elvis Picardo

The market is reacting to that in quite a negative fashion.

It raises concerns among investors about the extent of the exposure that the banks have to the mortgage business in Canada.

It remains to be seen if the TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) has the momentum to punch through that level (14,000) on the upside.

The TSX is holding up better than U.S. indices today, as gains by Valeant Pharma and gold producers are offsetting declines in energy and financial stocks.

It's quite significant from a technical point of view, given the strength of the global economy there is going to be doubts about the sustainability, but I got to say on current form it looks quite good.

As the index has moved higher we have seen the strength percolate to other (non-resource) sectors as well.

It helps the TSX because it's so leveraged to global growth expec... by Elvis Picardo

It helps the TSX because it's so leveraged to global growth expectations.

Does it pull back? Does it go further up from here? It's one of those inflection points that's a little hard to call.

You're seeing some of the big risk factors dissipate, crude oil come back, the Chinese markets stabilize, it helps the TSX because it's so leveraged to global growth expectations.

There is just this overwhelming sense of bearishness that's got a fierce hold on the market, in Canada the news hasn't been too encouraging as you've seen from the earnings that have come out today.

It does feel that the TSX is trying to find a bottom here. by Elvis Picardo

It does feel that the TSX is trying to find a bottom here.

This is historically the worst ever start for markets, you've got major indices down 8 or 9 percent, for the TSX to recover in the midst of that carnage is going to be very difficult.

If you had a solid, sharp bounce back above $30 that might have done something for sentiment, but as it stands it's really hard for the index to get much traction.

Negative sentiment is so overwhelming, it's not really surprising to see the TSX trade down on a day like this.

The TSX bears the brunt of any concerns about global growth. by Elvis Picardo

The TSX bears the brunt of any concerns about global growth.

The TSX seems to be following last year's trading pattern, when we saw a strong surge in the second half of December, while it may be too optimistic to expect a repeat of that performance, tax-loss selling pressure has abated, and we are seeing some interest in commodity producers, especially gold miners.

The energy group is still being held hostage by the daily gyrations in crude prices, which are currently approaching the lows of 2008.

The rest of the TSX weakness can be attributed to some profit-taking in the banks as well as significant weakness south of the border.

The market is once again getting a bit spooked about the prospect... by Elvis Picardo

The market is once again getting a bit spooked about the prospect of higher rates in the U.S..

It's an environment right now where investors are skittish and they're not going to hesitate to take profits on stocks that have moved higher.