It was a pretty choppy day. It's going to be a heck of a challenging year, some money is going to the non-energy sectors, but overall the TSX will continue to remain under pressure.

Elvis Picardo

Categorized in : Company News

We're seeing concerns about the timing of the inevitable rate hike of the Fed, our fundamental thesis that the TSX will have a down year still stands.

Oil has been bouncing around a lot. That seems to be impacting the energy group, but not so much the rest of the index, there's so much uncertainty surrounding the Canadian market, whether it's the housing sector or the impact crude oil will have on the economy.

It's going to take many months for the broader implications of the oil price collapse to play out, for the time being, we're going to see volatility in crude oil prices and energy producers.

It's quite the recovery, considering what we've gone through, but it's going to be choppy. We're getting to a point where investors are getting too complacent.

Despite the uncertainties, the market is displaying quite a bit of resilience being at these levels, you tend to see this kind of choppiness at turning points.

The market is poised at an inflection point. The question is, is... by Elvis Picardo

The market is poised at an inflection point. The question is, is there some value here?

There's no let-up in the selloff. The selling has been relentless, there is a growing view that perhaps investors are underestimating the impact of the crude oil collapse on the Canadian economy.

The question is, what does this relentless decline in crude oil tell us about the state of the global economy? The impact on oil-exporting countries such as Canada is quite substantial, it's a case where oil is breaking through one downside support level after another. At this point, it's 'sell the energy producers first and worry about the implications later'.

The TSX was pretty much firing on all cylinders right until September, then once the collapse in crude oil prices started, sentiment for the index really took a total turn.

With three of the major groups facing headwinds, it's hard to see the TSX making much headway in 2015.

This rebound is a welcome one, but it's not very convincing. It's really hard to see the TSX make a sustained advance from these levels, i haven't seen sentiment for the TSX change this quickly.

I haven't seen sentiment for the TSX change this quickly, you have the three biggest groups that make up two-thirds of the index floundering.

Part of the reason for today's muted decline is the fact that we... by Elvis Picardo

Part of the reason for today's muted decline is the fact that we had such a big drop yesterday.

When you have a dramatic decline like you've seen in oil prices, it could herald a turning point (in sentiment), i see a compelling buying opportunity in the energy space, but it's hard to convince people about that because of the ongoing cascade of bad news on oil.

It's essentially followthrough selling from last week because OPEC's decision not to cut output has had a catastrophic impact on the energy producers, the continued spate of bad news on crude oil has spooked investors.