Notwithstanding day-to-day movements, the fundamental picture hasn't really changed, and that is one of supply outstripping demand growth for most of the year, it's an incessant march downwards, and it would be interesting to see where it bottoms out, but there doesn't seem to be any sign of it so far.

Phin Ziebell

Categorized in : Energy

There is a looming supply issue in Australia. The east coast is dry and forecasts aren't looking good.

Phin Ziebell

environment

The previous storm expectations didn't pan out, which is good, but you have still got platforms with about 69 percent of output off, it was a bit of a shock to supply but a short-term one. The market has returned to a bit of normality.

Phin Ziebell

business

On the one hand you have the OPEC output cuts and there's some geopolitical issues around Iran. But the demand outlook is muted and U.S. supply is perennially good from shale oil, which seems to have structurally changed the nature of the oil market.

Phin Ziebell

business

It is a major issue for crops. It could pose a food security threat, management cost is an issue for small farmers.

Phin Ziebell

environment

It's tough to see a really big rally from here.

Phin Ziebell

business

There is no margin for error. There is virtually no soil moisture, so any prolonged period of dry weather is going to leave some farmers unable to produce a crop again.

Phin Ziebell

environment

Farmers could get away with no rain in March but they will desperately need a break in April. There is no moisture in the soil, it could get very bad.

Phin Ziebell

environment

On the scale of these floods, it certainly looks like the worst-case, or near the worst-case scenario is playing out.

Phin Ziebell

environment

Queensland desperately needed rain and now it's had way too much in some areas, i just don't think we have enough information at this stage to determine the scale of the stock losses and what benefit that part of the country can get from a bit of pasture.

Phin Ziebell

environment

There is plenty of downside risk to production, western Australia produced a great crop last year because it had good pre-season rains. If the outlook materializes, all soil moisture will be eradicated.

Phin Ziebell

environment

The weather is not good news for summer grain crops such as sorghum, many east coast farmers are still reeling from the winter wheat crops, which suffered from recent drought.

Phin Ziebell

environment

From October to January, they will have to rely on the United States for some of the soybean supplies although volumes could be less, we can't imagine a scenario where China does not need U.S. beans.

Phin Ziebell

top-news

China is Australia's growth market. Anything that inhibits that trade is a major worry.

Phin Ziebell

world

Higher-than-average rains will boost the national (wheat) production prospects, which are heavily reliant on Western Australia as the largest producer and largest exporter.

Phin Ziebell

environment

A true gluten-free barley variety is a true game changer, there is going to be a massive market for the product.

Phin Ziebell

health-news

The lack of required phytosanitary agreements are a huge constraint for higher growth, these agreements can take many years to obtain.

Phin Ziebell

industrials

Farmers in Australia have been insulated by the fall in [Australian] dollar, while the depreciation of South American currencies will also incentivize farmers to boost production.

Phin Ziebell

environment

The science projections do not point to Australia's climate getting any more favorable.

Phin Ziebell

environment

There is going to be a prolonged lull in exports, simply because the stocks are not going to be there, and it could take two, three years at least to rebuild stocks.

Phin Ziebell

company-news

From July on, large areas of the country did not get much rain.

Phin Ziebell

company-news