There is a looming supply issue in Australia. The east coast is dry and forecasts aren't looking good.

Phin Ziebell

Categorized in : Environment

The previous storm expectations didn't pan out, which is good, but you have still got platforms with about 69 percent of output off, it was a bit of a shock to supply but a short-term one. The market has returned to a bit of normality.

On the one hand you have the OPEC output cuts and there's some geopolitical issues around Iran. But the demand outlook is muted and U.S. supply is perennially good from shale oil, which seems to have structurally changed the nature of the oil market.

It is a major issue for crops. It could pose a food security threat, management cost is an issue for small farmers.

It's tough to see a really big rally from here. by Phin Ziebell

It's tough to see a really big rally from here.

There is no margin for error. There is virtually no soil moisture, so any prolonged period of dry weather is going to leave some farmers unable to produce a crop again.

Farmers could get away with no rain in March but they will desperately need a break in April. There is no moisture in the soil, it could get very bad.

On the scale of these floods, it certainly looks like the worst-case, or near the worst-case scenario is playing out.

Queensland desperately needed rain and now it's had way too much in some areas, i just don't think we have enough information at this stage to determine the scale of the stock losses and what benefit that part of the country can get from a bit of pasture.

There is plenty of downside risk to production, western Australia produced a great crop last year because it had good pre-season rains. If the outlook materializes, all soil moisture will be eradicated.

The weather is not good news for summer grain crops such as sorghum, many east coast farmers are still reeling from the winter wheat crops, which suffered from recent drought.

From October to January, they will have to rely on the United States for some of the soybean supplies although volumes could be less, we can't imagine a scenario where China does not need U.S. beans.

China is Australia's growth market. Anything that inhibits that t... by Phin Ziebell

China is Australia's growth market. Anything that inhibits that trade is a major worry.

Higher-than-average rains will boost the national (wheat) production prospects, which are heavily reliant on Western Australia as the largest producer and largest exporter.

A true gluten-free barley variety is a true game changer, there is going to be a massive market for the product.

The lack of required phytosanitary agreements are a huge constraint for higher growth, these agreements can take many years to obtain.

Farmers in Australia have been insulated by the fall in [Australian] dollar, while the depreciation of South American currencies will also incentivize farmers to boost production.

The science projections do not point to Australia's climate getti... by Phin Ziebell

The science projections do not point to Australia's climate getting any more favorable.

There is going to be a prolonged lull in exports, simply because the stocks are not going to be there, and it could take two, three years at least to rebuild stocks.

Notwithstanding day-to-day movements, the fundamental picture hasn't really changed, and that is one of supply outstripping demand growth for most of the year, it's an incessant march downwards, and it would be interesting to see where it bottoms out, but there doesn't seem to be any sign of it so far.

From July on, large areas of the country did not get much rain. by Phin Ziebell

From July on, large areas of the country did not get much rain.