The MD is well aware that the forecasts are no good but he needs them for planning purposes. Kenneth Arrow More Quotes by Kenneth Arrow More Quotes From Kenneth Arrow I think one of the things we learned from the physicists and also the theoretical biologists is the idea that when you're dealing with very complex systems you're going to get a large variety of behavior which can be interpreted as hill climbing, but hill climbing with a lot of modifications, hill climbing with big jumps occasionally. Kenneth Arrow climbingideasthinking The trouble is that the risks that are being hedged very well by new financial securities are financial risks. And it appears to me that the real things you want to hedge are real risks, for example, risks in innovation. The fact is that you'd like companies to be able to take bigger chances. Presumably one obstacle to successful R&D, particularly when the costs are large, are the risks involved. Kenneth Arrow riskrealsuccessful The health care provisions are presumably for individuals. And whoever pays for them, whether it's paid by the individual, state, whatever, the value is an individually based value. It has nothing to do with employment. Kenneth Arrow employmentcarepay I think the development of the venture capital system has been an example of something which is a successful improvement in risk-bearing. It doesn't exactly remove the risks at the beginning, but at least creates greater rewards at a slightly later stage and therefore encourages, say, small companies to engage in technologically risky enterprises. Kenneth Arrow risksuccessfulthinking I'm struck by the fact that by and large equity capital doesn't play a big role in new financing; it's either bonds or internal financing but not really equity. And therefore, it's not clear that anything which improves the equity markets has really much to do with the productivity of the economy as a whole. Kenneth Arrow rolesplayfacts Classic economic theories recognize public goods aspects of one kind or another - the need for economic intervention in, obviously, the supply of infrastructure and of education. We're not supplying that infrastructure at an appropriate rate today. I don't doubt it isn't just money; it's organization and goals and so forth. Kenneth Arrow organizationgoaldoubt Any purchase is one for the future. If you buy a refrigerator, you are making a commitment to the future so that you have food to eat for the next ten years. Kenneth Arrow youfuturefoodcommitment I was graduated in 1940 with a degree of Bachelor of Science in Social Science but a major in Mathematics, a paradoxical combination that was prognostic of my future interests. Kenneth Arrow bachelorfuturemathematicsscience My assignment was exclusively in the research field, and my first published paper, On the Optimal Use of Winds for Flight Planning, was the outgrowth of that work. Kenneth Arrow flightplanningresearchwork In 1963 and later papers, I pointed out that the special market characteristics of medical care and medical insurance could be explained by reference to differences in information among the parties involved. Kenneth Arrow medicalinformationcarespecial That economic decisions are made without certain knowledge of the consequences is pretty self-evident. But, although many economists were aware of this elementary fact, there was no systematic analysis of economic uncertainty until about 1950. Kenneth Arrow withoutprettyuncertaintyknowledge The major driver of economics is the equilibrium approach, which has taken various forms over the years. General equilibrium is the statement that all the different parts of the economy influence each other, even if it's remote, like mortgage-backed securities and their demands on automobiles. Kenneth Arrow likeeconomicsinfluencedifferent Not every business cycle has a financial crisis. Frequently they do. Kenneth Arrow cyclecrisisfinancialbusiness
