The situation is extremely volatile between the two most powerful states in the Gulf, Sunni-dominated Saudi Arabia and Shiite-dominated Iran. You have a war of words. You have war by proxies ... This really could get very ugly and dangerous in the next few weeks and next few months.

Fawaz Gerges

Categorized in : Top News

There is a widespread perception that Saudi Arabia is pursuing chaotic, counter-productive policies, the Saudis are really behaving with a sense of siege, reacting to events as if each was the end of the world.

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There is a new relationship based on a new understanding of Iran’s pivotal role in the region – that Iran is here to stay.

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What you have is not only a clash of narratives, you have basically a huge divide, a war by proxy, a cold war taking place between Saudi Arabia and Iran, it's a war about geopolitics. It's about power. It's about influence.

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We were hoping that a diplomatic solution could be found to the Syrian crisis in the next few months. Forget about it, we were hoping for a diplomatic solution in Yemen. Forget about it. ... Here, you have the two most powerful Islamic states in the heart of the Middle East now basically waging a direct confrontation, as opposed to an indirect war by proxy, so ... we should be really alarmed at the escalation of the confrontation.

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The diplomatic rupture between Saudi Arabia and Iran could easily... by Fawaz Gerges

The diplomatic rupture between Saudi Arabia and Iran could easily spiral out of control.

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Their conflict is playing out on Arab streets big time. by Fawaz Gerges

Their conflict is playing out on Arab streets big time.

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There's been the idea that ISIS is a bigger challenge for Iran and its allies than it is for the Arab states, even though this feeling is changing now, iSIS has threatened not only Iran and the [Shia]-dominated regimes in Iraq and Syria but even the Sunni-dominated Arab states.

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ISIS doesn't just exist in Syria and Iraq -- it has major constituency supporters in almost all Arab countries, including Saudi, Kuwait, Lebanon and Jordan. So they want to really minimize the risks.

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The Arab states, including Jordan -- after the incident with the pilot [burned to death by ISIS when his plane crashed in Syria] -- are laying low, iSIS doesn't just exist in Syria and Iraq -- it has major constituency supporters in almost all Arab countries, including Saudi, Kuwait, Lebanon and Jordan. So they want to really minimize the risks.

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The critical shift was the coalition in Yemen, you're talking about a major 24/7 war. The Saudis and the Emiratis -- the two countries with the most capacity in terms of air power -- are flying fighter jets over the skies of Yemen, so that's why you really have to prioritize the fight in Yemen over the fight against ISIS.

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It's a good day for diplomacy, it's a good day for compromise, it's a good day for a new beginning between Iran -- a pivotal state in the Middle East -- and the United States.

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It will be extremely difficult to glue Syria back together as one country, the social fabric, the thick ties that bind it together have been dismantled, assad rule is really an area that corresponds more or less with a core identity area, yes there are many Sunnis and Christians living there but they see themselves as part of this core – the middle-class, upper-class Sunnis and Christians.

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Obama believes that reaching a nuclear deal with Iran could be his foreign policy legacy. The Americans are not looking at the deal with Iran in terms of its regional impact, the U.S. deal with Iran would deeply intensify a new cold war that has been unfolding between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Sunni Saudi Arabia allies on one hand and Iran. It would likely pour more gasoline on the raging fires in the Gulf Arab heartland.

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