The ultimate compound return rate is acutely sensitive to fat tails. William Poundstone More Quotes by William Poundstone More Quotes From William Poundstone Are there any mythical beasts which aren't simple pastiches of nature? Centaurs, minotaurs, unicorns, griffons, chimeras, sphinxes, manticores, and the like don't speak well for the human imagination. None is as novel as a kangaroo or starfish. William Poundstone kangaroos imagination simple People tend to be clueless about prices. Contrary to economic theory, we don't really decide between A and B by consulting our invisible price tags and purchasing the one that yields the higher utility, he says. We make do with guesstimates and a vague recollection of what things are “supposed to cost.” William Poundstone price-tag clueless yield Expectation is a statistical fiction, like having 2.5 children. William Poundstone expectations children fiction Samuelson, however, hedged his personal bets - by putting some of his own money in Berkshire Hathaway. William Poundstone The best strategy is one that offers the highest compound return consistent with no risk of going broke. William Poundstone strategy return risk At a bare minimum, understanding entails being able to detect an internal contradiction: a paradox. William Poundstone paradox able understanding Samuelson spotted a mistake in Bacheliers work. Bachelier's model had failed to consider that stock prices cannot fall below zero. William Poundstone zero mistake fall Carl Friedrich Gauss, often rated the greatest mathematician of all time, played the market. On a salary of 1,000 thalers a year, Euler left an estate of 170,587 thalers in cash and securities. Nothing is known of Gauss's investment methods. William Poundstone salary cash years "Average" isn't so hot at the race track given those steep track takes. "Average" is pretty decent for stocks, something like 6 percent above the inflation rate. For a buy-and -hold investor, commissions and taxes are small. William Poundstone track race average Bernoulli's real contribution was to coin a word. The word has been translated into English as "utility". It describes this subjective value people place on money. William Poundstone coins real people Your second ducat, like your second million, is never quite as sweet. William Poundstone never-quit like-you sweet In The Tricky Art of Co-Existing, Sandi Toksvig navigates life's little dilemmas with wit and not-so-common sense. You'll learn the strange history of common courtesy and the one true secret of social success: how to not drive everyone around you crazy. William Poundstone common-sense crazy art The best paradoxes raise questions about what kinds of contradictions can occur-what species of impossibilities are possible. William Poundstone raises-questions paradox kind Kelly was aware that there is one type of favorable bet available to everyone; the stock market. William Poundstone available type Paradox is thus a much deeper and universal concept than the ancients would have dreamed. Rather than an oddity, it is a mainstay of the philosophy of science. William Poundstone oddities paradox philosophy The assumption that anything true is knowable is the grandfather of paradoxes. William Poundstone paradox assumption grandfather There were many at Bell Labs and MIT who compared Shannon's insight to Einstein's. Others found that comparison unfair - unfair to Shannon. William Poundstone mit labs bells Shannon's most radical insight was that meaning was irrelevant. William Poundstone shannon radical insight In real conversations, we are always trying to outguess each other. William Poundstone always-trying real conversation The more improbable the message, the less "compressible" it is, and the more bandwidth it requires. This is Shannon's point: the essence is its improbability. William Poundstone shannon essence messages
