There will be lots of political noise and posturing. But, when push comes to shove, Brexit will be avoided, it would be costly for all involved, and especially the UK. Mohamed El-Erian More Quotes by Mohamed El-Erian More Quotes From Mohamed El-Erian The world is on a bumpy journey to a new destination and the New Normal. Mohamed El-Erian new-normal journey world Investors should invest on what they know. The biggest mistake is to invest on what they don't know. Mohamed El-Erian investors should mistake Investors have to ask themselves two questions. How much can we grow our investments? And, can we afford our mistakes? Mohamed El-Erian investment mistake two Investors should be cautiously positioned as the global economy and markets face major uncertainties. The downgrade will be a further headwind to growth and job creation in the U.S. Mohamed El-Erian growth faces jobs We normally think if you're going to lend someone money, you should get some reward for doing this. In Europe, it's a tax! Mohamed El-Erian rewards europe thinking How long can interest rates stay negative? Think about this. Not only are you lending your money to governments, but you're paying them interest for the privilege of doing so. Mohamed El-Erian government long thinking The one instrument that has relative political autonomy is monetary policy. Central banks do not need to go to Congress to get approval for an interest rate hike. Mohamed El-Erian political approval needs Once you start moving [market] lower, then you trigger of all sorts of things. You trigger people who have to sell because they're over-levered. So they sell their winners and their losers. They're just trying to raise cash. So, what you then get is spreading malaise throughout the global markets. Mohamed El-Erian trying people moving Most people are under exposed to global assets, including foreign stocks, bonds and currencies. Mohamed El-Erian currency assets people Today's reports confirm that, unfortunately, post-crisis America is still not back to its good economic self. Mohamed El-Erian self today america America's downgrade may serve as a wakeup call for its policymakers. It is an unambiguous and loud signal of the country's eroding economic strength and global standing. It renders urgent the need to regain the initiative through better economic policymaking and more coherent governance. Mohamed El-Erian country america needs The theory is that if you take interest rates negative, people are going to say, "That's a silly game! I'm not going to lend my money to governments who want me to pay them. I am going to go into the stock market where I can get positive returns!" Mohamed El-Erian government games silly The world changes! So we're in a situation today where the only policymakers that have flexibility are central banks. But they don't have the instruments! So they've had to experiment, and the more you experiment, the more uncertainty and the higher the risk of collateral damage. Mohamed El-Erian risk today world As we spend more, and as companies are pushed to invest, they say, "Hey wait a minute! There's more demand in the system. Let's invest more." Mohamed El-Erian hey demand waiting I remember when I was growing up, you would go to a bank to open a deposit, and they'd give you a toaster. A free toaster. These days, if you're a company, and you go to a bank, they could easily turn you away! They don't want your deposits anymore. Mohamed El-Erian toasters growing-up giving If you happen to be the only one with negative interest rates, you also weaken your currency, which means you make your exports more competitive. Mohamed El-Erian currency mean negative [When] the market is trying to get to terms with, first, lower global growth, particularly out of emerging markets and China. And, second, the market is worried the central banks have run out of ammunition. So put these two things together, and then investors are repricing the market lower. Mohamed El-Erian growth running two The once-unthinkable loss of the AAA rating will constitute a further hit to already fragile business and consumer confidence. Mohamed El-Erian rating consumers loss It is hard to imagine that, having downgraded the US, S & P will not follow suit on at least one of the other members of the dwindling club of sovereign AAAs. If this were to materialise and involve a country like France, for example, it could complicate the already fragile efforts by Europe to rescue countries in its periphery. Mohamed El-Erian effort europe country As a whole, investors should welcome attempts to safeguard the integrity of markets. You need very clear rules applied to markets. Mohamed El-Erian welcome integrity needs
