Yes, the presidential race is very close, and some public polls show it getting closer as we go into the final hours, but in one sense it's actually been stable for months. Mara Liasson More Quotes by Mara Liasson More Quotes From Mara Liasson If [Donald] Trump wins narrowly, Democrats can blame the loss on FBI director James Comey, who inserted himself late in the campaign in an unprecedented way. Mara Liasson winning loss directors A big win for [Hillary] Clinton would allow her to claim that the country rejected Trumpism, while a narrow win leaves her limping into office with the highest unfavorable ratings for any new president. Mara Liasson office winning country The winner's margin of victory also matters. If it's a squeaker, that will make the lessons learned for both parties much murkier. Mara Liasson lesson-learned victory party In 2012, African-Americans were 13 percent of the electorate, and 93 percent of them voted for [Barack] Obama. Mara Liasson electorate barack african-american The [Hillary] Clinton campaign's recent travel schedule shows how seriously it takes this problem. She and her surrogates have held rallies in cities like Philadelphia, Detroit and Cleveland, trying to boost turnout among African-Americans. Mara Liasson philadelphia african-american cities The Democrats pulled out one of their most powerful surrogates - and no, it wasn't President [Barack] Obama. Beyoncé showed up at a GOTV rally in Cleveland, joining her husband, Jay Z, and Hillary Clinton. Mara Liasson husband powerful president Donald Trump's staffing up a pretty traditional, very conservative Republican government, not a populist outsider government, at least not yet. Mara Liasson outsiders conservative government For Democrats, anything less than 15 net pickups will be a disappointing outcome [in presidency race]. Mara Liasson disappointing outcomes race If they can get 15 or higher, it will be a very bad night for House Speaker Paul Ryan. Ryan twisted himself into a pretzel by endorsing but not always supporting Donald Trump. Now, he's facing the prospect of a slimmer majority, with fewer moderates. Conservative members in the Freedom Caucus have already sent warning shots threatening Ryan's tenure as speaker. Mara Liasson warning house night No one is predicting that the Democrats will get the 30 pickups they need to take back the House majority. Mara Liasson majority house needs If [Donald] Trump drags down a bunch of Senate Republicans, the post-election GOP assessment will be much more pessimistic. Mara Liasson pessimistic assessment election If Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania wins, for instance, it will tell Republicans that their own brand hasn't been hurt too badly by [Donald] Trump's negatives. Mara Liasson pennsylvania hurt winning Senate races have tightened along with the presidential race. Watch to see how many Republican Senate candidates outperform Donald Trump - and how many hang on to their seats in states that he loses. Mara Liasson presidential race watches The Senate is the big prize. Until recently, Democrats felt confident they could get the four seats they needed to take back control if [Hillary] Clinton is in the White House and Vice President Tim Kaine held the tie-breaking vote. Mara Liasson ties white house Meanwhile, there are some traditional battleground states - like Ohio and Iowa - that are becoming older, whiter and less educated. That's turning them from true battlegrounds into more reliable red states. Mara Liasson ohio iowa red As those states and others in the South and West become more diverse and educated, they will become harder for the Republican Party - in its current form - to win. Mara Liasson party west winning If she Hillary Clinton win just two of the three big battleground states - North Carolina, Florida and Virginia - she will have shut off Trump's path to 270 electoral votes, even if he wins the other toss-up states. Mara Liasson virginia florida winning Democrats came into the race with a structural advantage in the Electoral College. Their big blue wall - the states that Democrats have won in the past six presidential elections - gave [Hillary] Clinton a strong base to build on. Mara Liasson wall strong past In 2012, Hispanics were 10 percent of the electorate, underperforming their share of the voting-age population. Mitt Romney got 21 percent of their vote, and [Donald] Trump has been polling much lower than that. Mara Liasson voting-age population vote If [Hillary] Clinton can't boost African-American turnout, even with all that help, the question becomes whether she can make up for it with historic levels of support from Hispanics and suburban women. Mara Liasson african-american support levels
