If we're going to forecast the business cycle, surely it is a good idea to know the business cycle. Sounds reasonable, but it's not that easy. Edgar Fiedler More Quotes by Edgar Fiedler More Quotes From Edgar Fiedler Ask five economists and you'll get five different answers - six if one went to Harvard. Edgar Fiedler insperational business hands When you know absolutely nothing about the topic, make your forecast by asking a carefully selected probability sample of 300 others who don't know the answer either. Edgar Fiedler topics asking answers If you have to forecast, forecast often. Edgar Fiedler forecasts business ifs The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler independent business mistake Economists state their GNP growth projections to the nearest tenth of a percentage point to prove they have a sense of humor. Edgar Fiedler growth humor funny For economist the real world is often a special case. Edgar Fiedler real special world Forecasters tend to learn less and less about more and more, until in the end they know nothing about everything. Edgar Fiedler ends knows knowledge He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. Edgar Fiedler glass eat ground wisdom Expansions do not die of old age. The probability of recession in the following year is the same for a three-year-old expansion as it is for a five- or six-year-old expansion. Edgar Fiedler die year old-age age In a sense, there are as many forecasting methods as there are forecasters. But I would argue that most projections are derived from two major methods: macro-econometric models and eclectic judgment. Edgar Fiedler argue sense judgment two To qualify as a recession, economic activity must decline in an absolute sense; a mere slowdown in real growth is not enough. Edgar Fiedler activity growth real enough For a politician, the long term is between now and the next election. Edgar Fiedler election next politician long If a proposal doesn't prove out as expected when we run it, sometimes we change the model. Edgar Fiedler run prove change sometimes Forecasting is a maddening occupation. It is always fascinating and exciting and rewarding. yet it is also regularly exasperating and infuriating, occasionally even deranging. Edgar Fiedler also even always exciting The general public still expects a lot more forecasting accuracy than any of us can deliver. Edgar Fiedler than us more accuracy There is no formula that will guarantee success in forecasting, no magic words that will part the clouds. The real problem, as the old saw puts it, is that the future lies ahead. Edgar Fiedler words future success clouds Experience shows that a recession is never the result of just a few large industries dragging the economy down while the others continue to expand. Edgar Fiedler result down never experience At some risk of oversimplification, I suggest that the usual reason a business cycle turns into a monster is an overdose of government policy. Edgar Fiedler some government business reason No one can escape the iron rule that once you make a forecast, you know you're going to be wrong; you just don't know when and in which direction! Edgar Fiedler direction escape know you The public hasn't learned that businesses don't pay taxes: only people do. They're confused, and this makes an adviser's job all the harder. Edgar Fiedler only job confused people
